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The pragmatic approach taken by Australians to economic ties with China
Seven in ten Australians want the country’s economic relationship with China maintained or strengthened, a view that holds across Labor, Coalition and Greens voters, according to SEC Newgate’s latest research.
Based on even a day's headlines, you could think it a safe assumption that China's economic relationship with Western countries is deteriorating. Whether due to now well-established geopolitical faultlines or accusations of industrial overcapacity, or indeed both, the trajectory of China's trade relationships appears uncertain.
However, could Australia be the exception to that rule? This month, SEC Newgate asked a nationally representative sample of Australians which country they think will matter most to their economy over the next ten years. Almost half, 47 per cent, said China. What’s more, there was a very steep drop-off after that: the United States came second on 17 per cent, India on 8 and Japan on 4. In fact, China outranked the United States, India and Japan combined.
We also wanted to understand whether Australians thought the economic relationship with China, the country’s largest trading partner, should be strengthened, maintained or reduced. Forty-eight per cent said maintain it and 21 per cent said strengthen it, against only 18 per cent who wanted it reduced.
What was most surprising was how much common ground there was across political affiliation. Among those who want the relationship strengthened or maintained, Labor voters sit at 80 per cent, Greens at 77 and Coalition at 76. China also led as the economy that matters most in every group in the sample — men and women, all age groups, cities and regions.
Of course, this data does not mean that Australians embrace Chinese ownership of Australian companies and assets. But in a world where China is painted as the primary trade protagonist, a position held across most of the political spectrum that recognises there is more than one side to the argument is notable.
Part of the reason may be that China is not something Australians think about day to day. Our same tracking study also asked what concerned Australians the most. Cost of living (68%), housing affordability (32%), crime (20%), and immigration (17%) came in high among other items, but China was nowhere near the top of respondents’ concerns.
The main counterpoint to this trend was One Nation voters, with 35 per cent of respondents aligned with that party wanting to reduce economic relations with China. Even so, this group still named China ahead of the United States as the economy that will matter most to Australia's future, by 38 per cent to 26.
None of this makes Australians uncritical towards Chinese investment or any international capital. The public holds views on security, on foreign ownership and on the conditions any foreign investor must meet to own or control ‘national’ assets. But this survey shows there is a clear and widespread recognition that China will be critical to Australia's economy over the next decade. That view was broadly consistent whether respondents aligned with Labor, Liberal or Green.
It is worth remembering just how recently the situation looked different. From May 2020, tariffs and informal bans by China hit roughly A$20 billion of Australian exports — barley, wine, beef, coal, timber, cotton and lobster. Those restrictions have for the most part been lifted and two-way trade reached A$326 billion in 2025, a quarter of everything Australia trades with the world.[1]
We know that today Chinese capital is looking for overseas opportunities and increasingly facing a tougher time of it. According to consultancy EY, Chinese outbound direct investment reached US$86.5 billion in the first half of 2026, up 8.1 per cent year on year, with mining and metals the most active sector and the Oceania region ranked third by deal value.[2]
For Chinese companies weighing Australian opportunities, the clear takeaway is that public opinion on the ground is arguably more open to investment than other Western markets. However, that openness is a matter of degrees, not a binary ‘yes or no’ choice. Wariness remains and the largest single group of respondents chose ‘maintain’ the relationship rather than strengthen it.
That means the case must still be made locally. But the starting point is better than most Chinese investors will find elsewhere, where restrictions are tightening or doors have already closed. In Australia, an investment can be assessed on its own merits, with the broader public opinion viewing the economic relationship with China as worth having. While that is not a truly open door, it feels like a healthier place to start than in many other developed markets.
William Brocklehurst
Managing Partner, SEC Newgate China
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